Netanyahu besieged by failure; An election of life and death

The Election; The Final Test of Netanyahu's Record

Israel's electoral competition is being held under conditions in which none of the main camps, according to published polls, has a definitive and obstacle-free path to forming a cabinet. Achieving a majority of 61 seats out of the Knesset's total of 120 seats will depend on coalition-building and post-election negotiations. Therefore, even the electoral performance of the parties alone does not determine the fate of the future cabinet.

However, Netanyahu's issue is not just the number of seats for the Likud party. He must answer for the security failure of October 7, the costs of prolonged conflicts, the condition of reserve forces, internal disputes, and the gap between promises of victory and actual results. His opponents are trying to turn the election into an opportunity to end his period of leadership; his supporters continue to rely on his political experience and security policies.

Under such circumstances, the election for Netanyahu has a meaning close to political life and death: preserving power can give him the opportunity to continue his narrative of regional developments, but losing power will confront his position and political credibility with a serious challenge.

Ultimately, Netanyahu's record cannot be assessed with election slogans or claims of absolute victory. In realizing the promise of lasting security and converting military operations into a decisive strategic victory, he has faced serious failures. Iran remains at the center of Israel's security calculations, and the fronts associated with the Axis of Resistance, despite heavy military blows, have become unresolved files in Tel Aviv's regional strategy.

This is precisely Netanyahu's main weakness on the eve of the election: he can once again speak of victory, but he cannot eliminate the gap between his promises and strategic results merely by repeating this word. The October 27 election is, more than anything, a test for measuring this very gap and the extent of Zionist society's trust in his leadership.